US Refiners are Bullish on Margins as Heavy Oil Output Rebounds

US refiners’ profitability is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by increasing supplies of discounted heavy crude from Canada and the Middle East. Industry leaders, including Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and PBF Energy, predict that price differentials will widen as Canadian producers return from maintenance and OPEC production increases. Many Gulf Coast refineries have also retooled to process these lower-priced heavy crudes or to more easily switch between light and heavy oil.