EIA Expects U.S. Fossil Fuel Production to Reach New Highs in 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), January 24, 2022

After declining in 2020, the combined production of U.S. fossil fuels (including natural gas, crude oil, and coal) increased by 2% in 2021 to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units. Based on forecasts in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. fossil fuel production is expected to continue rising in both 2022 and 2023, surpassing production in 2019, to reach a new record in 2023.

Of the total U.S. fossil fuel production in 2021, dry natural gas accounted for 46%, the largest share. Crude oil accounted for 30%, coal for 15%, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9%. The EIA expects those shares to remain similar through 2023.

U.S. dry natural gas production increased by 2% in 2021, based on monthly data through October and estimates for November and December. In its forecast, improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.

U.S. crude oil production dropped slightly, by an estimated 1%, in 2021, but the EIA expects it to increase by 6% in 2022 and 5% in 2023. They forecast that, in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency.

U.S. coal production increased by an estimated 7% in 2021, driven by increased demand for coal because of rising natural gas prices. Coal's comparatively lower prices made coal more economical for use in electric power generation compared with natural gas. In 2020, U.S. coal production had fallen to its lowest level since 1964. The EIA forecasts that coal production will increase 6% in 2022 as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. However, it forecasts that coal production will only increase by 1% in 2023 as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines.

U.S. NGPL production increased by 4% in 2021. The EIA expects U.S. NGPL production to increase by 9% in 2022 and then by 4% in 2023. Because NGPLs are a coproduct of natural gas, its forecast for rising NGPL production is linked to its forecast for rising natural gas production.

Comments and Discussion

There are no comments yet.

Add a Comment

Please log in or register to participate in comments and discussions.

Inspectioneering Journal

Explore over 20 years of articles written by our team of subject matter experts.

Company Directory

Find relevant products, services, and technologies.

Training Solutions

Improve your skills in key mechanical integrity subjects.

Case Studies

Learn from the experience of others in the industry.


Inspectioneering's index of mechanical integrity topics – built by you.

Industry News

Stay up-to-date with the latest inspection and asset integrity management news.


Read short articles and insights authored by industry experts.

Expert Interviews

Inspectioneering's archive of interviews with industry subject matter experts.

Event Calendar

Find upcoming conferences, training sessions, online events, and more.


Downloadable eBooks, Asset Intelligence Reports, checklists, white papers, and more.

Videos & Webinars

Watch educational and informative videos directly related to your profession.


Commonly used asset integrity management and inspection acronyms.