United States to Lead Global Oil Supply Growth, While No Peak in Oil Demand in Sight

The United States will drive global oil supply growth over the next five years thanks to the remarkable strength of its shale industry, triggering a rapid transformation of world oil markets according to the International Energy Agency’s annual oil market forecast. By the end of the forecast, oil exports from the United States will overtake Russia and close in on Saudi Arabia, bringing greater diversity of supply.

While global oil demand growth is set to ease, in particular as China slows down, it still increases an annual average of 1.2 mb/d to 2024, according to the report, Oil 2019. Still, the IEA continues to see no peak in oil demand, as petrochemicals and jet fuel remain the key drivers of growth, particularly in the United States and Asia, more than offsetting a slowdown in gasoline due to efficiency gains and electric cars. 

Global oil markets are going through a period of extraordinary change, with long-lasting implications on energy security and market balances throughout our forecast period to 2024. The United States is increasingly leading the expansion in global oil supplies, with significant growth also seen among other non-OPEC producers, including Brazil, Norway and new producer Guyana.

© OECD/IEA 2019, United States to lead global oil supply growth, while no peak in oil demand in sight, IEA Publishing. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c