Reynolds Wrap Up: Should We Shut Down Now to Fix It, or Can We Wait Until a Better Time?

Introduction

We are nearing the end of a major turnaround that has been going well, and it is forecasted to end on schedule. Then “BAM!” – our fixed equipment mechanical integrity (FEMI) nondestructive examination (NDE) group discovers a significant flaw in a major reactor. Now what? Do we need to take an unplanned extension to fix it now, or can we wait until the next turnaround? How long will it take to fix it, and how much will it add to the TA cost and timing? Can we operate safely for some period of time before we need to fix it? Can we make it to the next scheduled TA without “failure” if we don’t fix it now? What are all the things we need to think about in relation to fixing it now versus waiting for a more convenient time to conduct planned repairs? But as the title implies, this situation could arise (and has occurred) when a significant flaw is found even during on-stream inspections and not just during a TA.

Clearly, there would be substantial unplanned repair costs and lost profit opportunity involved with remaining shut down and conducting repairs now. Management and maintenance are demanding answers right now. What must we do? What are all our options? What are the risks involved? What issues do we need to assess in order to make a decision? It’s a demanding, high-stress situation for any FEMI personnel involved in the decision-making process. Most of us FEMI veterans have faced such a demanding, urgent situation before; some of us on multiple occasions. This article is all about applying a qualitative risk-benefit analysis (RBA) process that I have used on several occasions over the last 50 years to help understand all the options and then make the decision on what to do under similar circumstances.